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Published in Saudi Arabia - Financial analysis - 3 years ago - 14

Hello guys,

Today while I was shooting I noticed that I did not get any lucky dices, so I wanted to check formula, and I found that formula is wrong.

I will try to explain. So let us begin.

In admin article in which you can check, admin revealed to us that Lucky dice event will start from 29.04. 

Also in the same article, he mentioned that War of nations tournament will start as well from 29.04.  

I will explain soon why I mention that.

Now to explain. As I mentioned before, both events started on the same day.  

An important thing to remember is that on War of Nations event you can see how many hits you have made.
I made visible on the next screenshot real-time when I make an article, my icon avatar and my number of hits.

Now I need to tell you that from beginning of these events, I didn t spent any lucky dices. I usually rock all of them at once.

Ok now its time for math.

As you can see in previous screenshots I made 20013 hits and as a result, I got 97 dices (in total I got 117 but we are handed 2 dices free every day and today is a 10-th day so - 20 dices it s in total 97 ). 
I will try to write math equation in text:

so 20013 hits divided with 97 we got 206,32.  This means that in my case, for every 206,32 hits I got 1 dice.

Now when we divide that in percentage we got that my drop rate was 0.484 % ,surrounded on 0.5%.

This was big surprise for me bcos admin mentioned in article that drop rate is 7%. 

This is big difference fellas, instead of getting 7% drop or even 5% drop ,we got 0.5% drop. 

Also, I check with some my friends here and some of them  got even less.

I am aware that this is probably admins/programmers mistake while making formula but please fix it.


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Comments (14)

You put this beautiful woman on the beginning and you want me to read the rest of the article after.. This is impossible! Smile
Maybe they count in fight button press hits (1 button = 10 game hits) in which case that would make 5% chance
@boromir fair point, In admin article its said per hit, if we Use your statement we should be able, in theory, get even 10 dices per button click. Smile
This is not how probability works. 20000 hits is way less than `going to infinity`. What I m sure in is that drop should be based on aposterioric probability and everytime you do not receive a drop, your chances should grow. Poisson or hyper-geometric distribution might work, I really hope it is not equally distributed.
Tovar explained first dice event that it was 7% per 10 hits (they wrote wrong the article and didn t fix it not even the next times)
In reality as boromir said, you did 2001 hits or clicks, as every 7% chance only is possible with hits that were done with 100 health. Maybe all hits you did were not in packs of 100 health. Although that, its a 7% probability, there is no amount of hits that can grant you to test is a 7% exactly. In your case I think is 4,84%
Funny Boromir is right You are also a bit unlucky personnaly i suppose to be upper than 7%
My dear you are calculating percentage against your hits number, however the percentage which is mentioned by admin article (7%) is for overall hits. So by that you actually can not calculate the percentage for an individual hits. The formula is applied on overall players and the formula can be applied as on hour or a day basis we do not know that yet! But in any case consider yourself lucky to get least of 0.5% Smile
Admin have explained before that this only calculated on a full 10x hit (100 energy). Every hit with 5 or 1 hit has 0% chance. I also think they mean 7 % chance for every 10 hits. I.e the chance per hit is 0.7% per hit. With those two things considered 0.484 % is not an unlikely outcome. It s a bit below what you could ve expected for sure, but no evidence that they have the wrong formula.
Exactly what pelmer said above in addition those 10x hits would be calculating in real time for overall hitting as per my assumption it is most likely the case.
You did great math but you forgot about probability. They say that on every hit you have 7% of probability getting dice. It does not mean that you gonna have in 100 hits at least 7 dice. The probability works in different way. You may sit 1000 but get 0 dice because 7% works on each hit. Thats my understanding but I might be wrong.
i did 20 hit and won 5 dices Smile Lucky